Without twelve toss up states (MN, NV, CO, IA, WI, MI, OH, PA, NH, VA, NC, AND FL), Mitt Romney and Barack Obama are tied at 191 each. I predict Mr. Romney will win FL (29), NC (15), VA (13), NH (4), OH (18), IA (6), CO (9) and Mr. Obama will get MN (10), NV (6), WI (10), MI (16), PA (20).
This brings Mr. Romney to 285 Electoral College votes and Mr. Obama to 253. These are just my base predictions and I still think several of these states are too close to call. For example, while I put them in Mr. Obama's column, I still believe NV, WI, and PA are in play and very winnable for Mr. Romney. If crowds at his recent stops in these states are any indication of his supporters' enthusiasm, Mr. Romney will likely be able to claim victory in these states as well.
Map and trendline can be found here: http://www.rove.com/election
All the best,
Karl
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